Climate Pressure Hits Banks
Climate Pressure Hits Banks January 22, 2026 admin Climate Risks Begin to Hit Borrowing Costs as Markets Price In Global Warming For years, climate experts have argued that markets would eventually force companies to take climate change more seriously as risks become clearer. New research suggests that shift is now underway, with borrowers starting to face tangible financial penalties for ignoring the dangers ahead. A paper published this month by the European Central Bank found that banks with the highest exposure to so-called transition risks are now paying significantly more to borrow in funding markets. That followed a December study by the Central Bank of Ireland showing that companies exposed to physical climate risks face higher borrowing costs and are increasingly required to post more collateral. Together, the findings suggest that the two main channels through which climate change is expected to affect corporate finances — transition risk and physical risk — are beginning to materialize in day-to-day financial pricing. “These papers illustrate well how the economics of the transition is working on a micro-, day-to-day level in the financial system,” said Ulf Erlandsson, chief executive officer of the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute. Transition risk refers to the threat that companies slow to cut carbon-intensive activities will be penalized by regulators, investors or shifting consumer preferences. While long viewed as difficult to quantify — particularly as governments repeatedly delay net-zero policies — physical risks tied to extreme weather are becoming harder to dismiss as climate disasters mount. In the ECB study, senior economist Margherita Giuzio, alongside Bige Kahraman and Jasper Knyphausen of Oxford Saïd Business School, examined how banks’ exposure to carbon-intensive borrowers affects funding costs in Europe’s repo market. That market allows banks to manage short-term liquidity by selling and repurchasing high-quality assets, often overnight. By combining data on European banks’ repo borrowing between 2019 and 2022 with measures of their financed emissions — the carbon footprint of their lending — the researchers found a clear pricing effect. Banks with higher financed emissions consistently paid more to borrow. A one standard deviation increase in financed emissions translated into repo rates that were on average 7% to 12% higher. The findings “provide the first evidence that climate risks affect the pricing of bank liquidity in Europe’s core funding market,” the researchers wrote, adding that transition risks could amplify financial fragilities and interact with the transmission of monetary policy. “Banks are exposed to the economic conditions of the firms they lend to,” Giuzio said in an emailed response. “Shocks affecting those firms can influence their ability to repay loans. Transition risk, for example arising from changes in carbon pricing, regulation or consumer preferences, can affect firms’ costs and profitability, and therefore their credit risk.” Not all regulators agree that climate change threatens financial stability. The issue sparked tense debate at a meeting of the Financial Stability Board last year, where US officials argued that climate risk should only be monitored if there is evidence of an imminent threat to the financial system. Evidence of physical risk affecting borrowing costs is also mounting. Ireland’s Central Bank examined more than 40,000 corporate loans and found that companies located in flood-prone areas pay around 7 to 13 basis points more than peers elsewhere. Those firms are also more likely to back loans with collateral. The central bank warned that exposure to flood risk is expected to rise significantly as climate change alters weather patterns. A broader global picture emerges from recent research by Karol Kempa of the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. Analyzing about 86,000 syndicated bank loans worldwide, the study found that firms in countries with higher climate vulnerability face meaningfully higher borrowing costs. A one standard deviation increase in climate vulnerability was associated with a 39 basis-point rise in loan pricing. “Climate-related events could cause substantial economic damages to firms,” Kempa wrote, adding that those shocks could be transmitted to the financial system through loan defaults, falling asset prices and, ultimately, threats to financial stability. Recommended Article Climate Pressure Hits Banks Trump Rattles Wind Industry China breaks the Davos hush on climate Trump’s latest blow to climate Iran Protests Grow as Rial Plunges EV Boom Slows as Subsidies Fade ‘Untouchable’ no longer Blockbuster year Another log on the fire Hybrids pick up speed It’s not all bad news Under New Ownership New front in the war on wind Blown away What the end of the F-150 means
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